Wednesday, November 12, 2014

'One Time Act'- Director: Amit Shah

I was in train travelling from Thakurli to Thane when the question from previous night prevailed in my mind. What will be the strategy of BJP to form the government? While I changed trains and boarded the one to Ghansoli got the news of BJP having won the vote of confidence and Leader of Opposition of Shiv Sena. I was happy that vote of confidence went through, Shiv Sena supported the appointment of BJP's Speaker of Assembly and also had their own Leader of Opposition. I was relieved, had a devilish smile on my face. I wanted to laugh out loud like a devil. Doinh He ho ho ho ho haw. :)  I was so happy. Speaker: BJP, Leader of Opposition: Shiv Sena and CM: BJP. Was is the strategy of 'Leader of Opposition bhi apna ruling bhi apna. naa rahega baas na bajegi bansuri?' Question was half answered. NCP didn't vote Shiv Sena and Congress opposed and all others voted in favour of BJP. There is never a free lunch and in politics unconditional support meant *conditions applied.

How will the CM have a stable government? How would he prove that he didnt do any favors to NCP in exchange of support? What about the forth coming elections of J&K, Jharkhand and Delhi. When AAP chief formed government in Delhi with Congress and resigned, he hurt the sentiments of people in Delhi. They started hating him. This gamble of BJP in Maharashtra looked similar. What if BJP CM resigns since NCP withdrew support since their demands were not met. Since this was the time of unusual politics nothing was predictable. Playing these cards today, has BJP just bought some time to make sure they prove their mettle. BJP was not disclosing any of their cards, were playing blind. Rather kept all the political parties and the society in blind may be not Shiv Sena. They were hands in glove with BJP. Not Sure. Shiv Sena's backing of Speaker of Assembly was unexpected. Looked like BJP was testing patience of all the political parties. They stayed mum and were not ready to match Shiv Sena's demand and yet not declared their relationship status with NCP. Act behind the scenes is interesting. It looks like BJP is testing depth at both ends Shiv Sena and NCP. In the act they made sure Leader of Opposition is Shiv Sena and NCP fell prey and offers support. At later stage if NCP starts demanding favors against their support in the form of ministries or hiding some of their scams they could always back out. Doing so they have kept doors open.

The act is well planned. Course of time is deciding the fate of all other parties. By putting Shiv Sena in opposition they made sure Hindutwa work is always a priority and doesnt get blocked by having Pro-Seculars in the opposition to become a hurdle every time. Ruling bhi Hindutwa, Opposition bhi Hindutwa. No space for Pro-Seculars rather pseudo seculars.

This was a once in life time act set by BJP. Ruling bhi Hindutwa, Opposition bhi Hindutwa.

Within the time bought by the CM, 3 months or may be 6 months BJP will have to push reforms and work at full throttle. MH will face elections very soon because, ride with NCP is a blind date. If they face elections they have chance to blame the NCP and the Shiv Sena. Here Culprit would be the NCP and yet again the Hindutwa would emerge victorious against the Secular.

What is BJP is committed to NCP behind the scenes. Favors to NCP and progress is on the back burner. However, since it was the time of unusual politics everything is unpredictable.

Indian politics is all about how you unnerve the human sentiment. The act put here by BJP was unusual and tough to be understood by a common man. Going by the trend, one who remains in limelight enjoys sympathy and votes here. The shot played by BJP was going to put Congress and NCP off that limelight and make sure they get reduced to single digit in the next election. A strategy for the long run. Neither Congress nor NCP is in opposition and hence they will not have issues to take to people when they face elections. The real competition would be between Shiv Sena and BJP. One should note be surprised if 288 seats get divided amongst BJP and Shiv Sena next time.

The question of 'How' still prevails. Unusual Politics. Unusual Fate.

'One Time Act'- Director: Amit Shah

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

MahaSangraam

Lately had read about the history of Shiv Sena where they started rebelling against the South Indian Babus getting more of South Indian people into key roles and offices in the city to Vasant Sena during Vasanta Dada Patil's regime to Karnataka Boder issues to Ayodhya - Ram temple and Alliance with BJP and finally the end of the love story.

My thought to it is if one respects Balasaheb so much and his ideology then, either Shiv Sena or BJP should budge to the others demands. However, the politics here looks to be a little more different than usual. The two groups the way they are recognized in Maharashtra politics Shiv Sena and BJP: Hindu Ideologists against INC and NCP the Pro-Secular; Both the group were looking at who will break the alliance first. Finally it was Shiv Sena and BJP the first ones to declare end of relationship. Happy with the fact INC and NCP declared the same immediately. The Pro Secular had to watch every step. why the seculars were so watchful, though they had deep roots in the state? Later when the results were out, results caught every politician off guard. Heavy weights of INC and NCP lost. While few struggled but emerged victorious finally. MIM had a good score MNS almost wiped out.

NCP chief declares unconditional support on the same day of counting. A Secular chief declaring support unconditional, really unusual. The BJP CM took oath without full majority. Were they so sure of how things would turn out. Sena pulls of and declares to sit in the opposition. It hurt. I thought Shiv Sena and BJP will join hands post results to form Government. Not this time. It was time for unusul politics. What possibly could have been the strategies of Amit Shah and Narendra Modi. It is really unusual and the situation is completely unpredicatble. May be Shah and Modi wanted to wipe out NCP and INC and hence they broke the alliance before elections. Since there was a lot of hatred in the society for NCP and INC.

If Shivsena and BJP had contested elections as an alliance, possible chance of making an impactful presence was going to be difficult. 288 seats, 288 candidates of Hindu Alliance not a good gamble. HIndu Alliance is weak in certain pockets where seculars have deep roots. 288 seats 576 candidates. Higher chance of impact. No more an Alliance existed. The sentiment shifted and the situation impacted everyones thought process in Maharashtra. The disinterested was keen to know 'Now What?' Secular loyalist shifted either to Shivsena or BJP. Shiv Sena had only one factor in their favour 'sympathy of breach of alliance' while BJP had 'Modi wave' and 'Sympathy of breach of alliance.' ratio of number of impacting factors was equal to ratio of number of seats won. 1:2 on the factors and results too 1:2. Shivsena's demand of the minisries in the ratio of 1:2 looked decent and should have been accepted by BJP.

No. Not this time. This was the time of unusual politics. May be, since NCP had already declared unconditional support, now was the question of how about a sustainable government. May be now was the time of declaring Alliance with Shiv Sena. NO. Not yet. BJP is not done with the game. A thoughtful one.

The MH CM through press had made public of they not being worried if the government is dissolved very soon. He quoted the work done within that short period will get them victory next time. However the question of time was are they planning to take support of NCP and let go off Shiv Sena for their demands. Everyone in BJP is mum while Shivsena is heavily vocal. Is it again a strategy of BJP. 'Ruling bhi apna opposition bhi apna. Na rahega baas na bajegi bansuri.' At the same time it is the question of not hurting the sentiments of people. Hence, one has to become a good guy while the other a bad guy. In this case Shiv Sena was being vocal and was taking positions while BJP let things to the fate of time. When such an attitude was rejected a few years back by the JDS Second in Command H.D. Kumaraswamy in Karnataka were reduced to few seats and Yeddi became a BJP. Then did a lot of corruption and gave the chance to INC's Siddharamaiya. Indian politics is the game of unnerving the human sentiment. You get the nerve you win. Yet, silence of BJP was unusual. 122 seats of BJP a dozen of others, few defected of Shiv Sena, INC and NCP would mean long standing government. Leader of opposition from Sena, leader of ruling from BJP. Where in the assembly is INC and NCP. No where. A gamble safe enough for growth of the party and giving public the congress mukt Maharashtra. What if no one defects from either of their parties. Fadnavis's readiness to go for another poll indicated Amit Shah had already set a strategy for this too.

NOTHING BUT THE TIME OF UNUSUAL POLITICS..... rather NaMoLitics..... or is it ShahLitics